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The biggest wildcard for the economy and the housing market in 2022 appears to be the seemingly accepted certainty that the Jerome Powell-led Federal Reserve will be raising interest rates in an attempt to bring inflation under control. Interestingly though is a smaller group of economists who see it a bit differently than the mass herds of experts out there who are "taking the bait" that The Fed will raise rates multiple times this year. This smaller group of pundits sees The Fed as being forced to choose between their investment banking buddies on Wall Street or the regular folks on Main Street, when it comes to the impact of raising interest rates and cratering the stock market (and housing market?) or letting Main Street figure out how to live with inflation. They see a potential spike in energy prices caused by the looming situation in the Ukraine as causing a global growth slowdown providing The Fed with enough cover to hold off on raising interest rates, enabling them to avoid being the bubble popping villain, at least for now. This theory may get tested sooner, rather than later.
Locally, as of Jan. 25, we remain in a low supply seller's market with only 450 active single-family homes listed for sale in the Multiple Listing Service at prices ranging from $215,000 to $5.995 million. There were only 56 Cape Coral homes listed at $350,000 and under, with 10 priced below $300,000 and only three of those at $250,000 and below, while a total of 77 homes are listed for $1 million and above. The current median list price is $524,950. There are 971 homes in the Cape under contract with buyers as pending sales, as buyer demand remains strong and foreclosures remain almost non-existent. One year ago, there were 486 active Cape Coral home listings in the MLS from $164,900 to $3.995 million.
Before we get into the unsold supply numbers, here are the sales and median sales price numbers for the Cape's single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, where there were 389 closed sales in December. This was 2.5 percent lower than the 399 sales in December 2020, but 0.5 percent above the 387 closed sales in November 2021. There were 1,156 closed sales in this segment during the fourth quarter, which beat the 1,129 sales in the fourth quarter of 2020 by 2.4 percent, while coming in even with the 1,156 closed sales in the third quarter of 2021. For the year, there were a total of 4,665 dry lot homes sold in 2021, which was 19.1 percent above the 3,918 dry lot homes sold in all of 2020.
The median sales price in the Cape Coral single-family dry lot home segment came in at $349,000 in December, which was up 40.2 percent from the $248,950 posted in December 2020, and up 4.2 percent from $335,000 in November 2021. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the median sales price in this segment averaged $338,917 per month, or 37.1 percent above the average of $247,143 per month in the fourth quarter of 2020, and 8.6 percent higher than the average of $312,013 per month in the third quarter of 2021. For the year, the median sales price in the Cape's dry lot home segment averaged $299,941 per month in 2021, or 27.9 percent more than the average of $234,598 per month for the full year in 2020.
In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 3 months in December, which was even with the 3 months of unsold supply in both December 2020, and November 2021. In the fourth quarter, the monthly average level of unsold supply was 3 months, or 9.9 percent less than the average of 3.33 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2020, and even with the average of 3 months of supply in the third quarter of 2021. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level also averaged 3 months in 2021, or 35.6 percent below the average of 4.66 months of unsold supply in all of 2020.
Indirect gulf access canal homes
In the Cape Coral single-family indirect gulf access canal home segment (meaning canal homes with bridges in the canal system), the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 2 months in December. This was even with the 2 months of unsold supply in December 2020, and 33.33 percent below the 3 months of supply in November 2021. In the fourth quarter, the monthly average of unsold supply in this segment was 3 months, which was 12.4 percent above the average of 2.67 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2020, but 18.3 percent below the 3.67 months of unsold supply in the third quarter of 2021. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level for indirect gulf access homes also averaged 3 months in 2021, which was 25 percent less than the average of 4 months of unsold supply in all of 2020.
Direct sailboat access canal homes
In the Cape Coral single-family direct sailboat access canal home segment (homes with no bridges in the canal system to reach open water), the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 3 months in December. This was even with the 3 months of unsold supply registered in both December 2020, and in November 2021. In the fourth quarter, the monthly average of unsold supply in this segment was 3.33 months, or 9.3 percent below the average of 3.67 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2020, but even with the average of 3.33 months of unsold supply in the third quarter of 2021. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level for direct sailboat access canal homes averaged 3 months in 2021, which was 49.3 percent below the average of 5.92 months of unsold supply in all of 2020.
Freshwater canal and lake homes
In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment, which consists of landlocked canals and lakes with no boating access to the river or the Gulf of Mexico, the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 2 months in December. This was even with the 2 months of unsold supply in December 2020, and 33.33 percent below the 3 months of supply in November 2021. In the fourth quarter, the monthly average of unsold supply in this segment was 2.67 months, which was even with the average of 2.67 months of supply in the fourth quarter of 2020, but 19.8 percent below the 3.33 months of unsold supply in the third quarter of 2021. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level for freshwater canal and lake homes averaged 2.92 months in 2021, which was 38.5 percent lower than the average of 4.75 months of unsold supply in all of 2020.
Dry lot homes
In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, the monthly level of unsold supply came in at 3 months in December, which was even with the 3 months of supply posted in both December 2020, and in November 2021. In the fourth quarter, the monthly average of unsold supply in this segment was 3 months, or 9.9 percent below the average of 3.33 months of supply in both the fourth quarter of 2020, and the third quarter of 2021. For the year, the monthly unsold supply level for dry lot homes also averaged 3 months in 2021, or 29.4 percent below the average of 4.25 months of supply in all of 2020.
The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of Jan. 17, 2022, unless otherwise noted. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 42 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.