Breaking News
Local Columns

Cape luxury home sales down, inventory up, prices soften

By GERI and BOB QUINN 7 min read
Geri and Bob Quinn

It is time once again for our tip of the hat to Robin Leach, the late great host of "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous," as we offer up another toast of champagne wishes and caviar dreams by taking a look back at the Cape Coral luxury home market in the first half of 2023. Although the pace of luxury home sales has slowed dramatically from the record levels of a year ago, we are still posting solid results based on historical measures. For the record, our definition of the single-family luxury home market segment in Cape Coral consists of homes that have sold at prices of $1 million and above.

One year ago in our column published July 15, 2022, when discussing the first six months of 2022 in the Cape Coral single-family luxury home market our headline read, "Huge first half for luxury home sales, challenges ahead." The challenges we were concerned about back then mostly revolved around the impact we were already feeling in our real estate market at that time as a direct result of the Jerome Powell-led Federal Reserves aggressive policy shift towards higher interest rates as they launched their war on inflation. One of their stated objectives in tackling the out-of-control levels of inflation was to hike interest rates high enough to create "demand destruction," and thereby slow down the housing market, among a number of other things. We were also pointing out the sharp rise in the inventory of existing homes being listed for sale and the significant shift we were seeing in buyer attitudes as the bidding wars ended and the market shifted more in their favor. By this time last year, the opportunity to sell your home at the record high sales prices from earlier in 2022 were gone. Then in late September, Hurricane Ian added to the market damage already started by the Fed that began in March 2022.

When we examined the Cape's single-family luxury home segment in the first half of this year, the drop in the number of closed sales glared back at us in the form of a 44.7% plunge to 135 sales from the 244 luxury home sales in the first six months of 2022. As bad as this drop seemed, several things struck us about this slowdown in luxury sales. First, the decline in sales was off of the all-time record set for sales in the first half of the year in 2022. Second, it was in the aftermath of the Fed's year long demand destruction program and the direct hit from Hurricane Ian. Third, despite all of this, we still managed to outpace the 111 closed luxury home sales posted back in the first half of 2021. Mix in the fact that median list and sales prices for our luxury home market have, to date, merely softened and not collapsed after coming under the additional pressure from the "clearance sales" of a number of storm damaged homes and we would tend to declare this a victory of sorts in an impressively resilient, "down but not out" market scenario. The numbers follow.

In the first half of this year, closed sales prices in our luxury home segment ranged from $1 million to $3.925 million. The second highest-priced sale came in at $3.3 million and the median sales price for luxury homes in the Cape came in at $1.3 million in the first six months of 2023. Last year, luxury homes in the Cape were sold at prices ranging from $1 million to a high of $4.3 million in the first half of the year, with a total of three homes selling for $4 million and up. The median sales price for the 244 sales in the luxury home segment was $1.35 million over that time frame. So we are seeing some softness in sales prices, but nothing even remotely like the total market collapse that occurred roughly 12 to 15 years ago during the Great Recession.

One of the other big market shifts has been with the number of active listings and pending sales. As of Tuesday, July 4, there were a total of 1,732 active listings for single-family homes in Cape Coral through the MLS, including 219 luxury home listings at $1 million and above. We currently have 786 pending home sales in the Cape, including 26 luxury homes under contract with buyers. A year ago on July 5, 2022, there were a total of 1,177 active home listings in the Cape, including 193 luxury homes listed at $1 million and above. At that time, there were a total of 759 pending home sales in the Cape, including 33 pending sales in our luxury segment. So the number of overall active home listings has increased by 47% in the past year, while the number of luxury home listings is up by 13.5%, and the number of overall pending home sales is 3.6% higher, with the pending sales in our luxury segment down 21% from a year ago.

To illustrate the change in market conditions as it correlates to when the Federal Reserve made its first of 10 consecutive interest rate hikes beginning about 16 months ago, back on March 15, 2022, there were a total of 430 active home listings in the Cape, with only 76 luxury homes listed for sale at $1 million and above. At that time, there were 1,034 pending home sales in the Cape, with 83 priced at $1 million and above. So from the time that the Fed launched what has turned out to be its most aggressive tightening campaign in history, the number of overall active home listings in the Cape has increased by 303%, with luxury home listings rising by 188%. While overall pending home sales dropped by 24%, including a 6 % plunge in the number of pending sales in our luxury market.

The Cape's highest-priced home sale in the first half of 2023 was for a home on the river in the Yacht Club area, which closed on June 15 for $3.925 million. The seller originally purchased the property for $690,000 in June 2019, when it contained a 1,727 square foot home built back in 1960. They pulled a demolition permit in August 2019 to tear down the old home and started construction on their new 3,551-square-foot home in January 2020, eventually listing this newer home for sale at $4.5 million in June 2022. After several price decreases, the home went under contract with a buyer on Sept. 6, 2022, at $3.999 million in a deal that fell apart after Hurricane Ian. The listing was withdrawn from the market on Oct. 12, before it expired on Jan. 1 of this year. It came back on the market as a new listing with a different agent on Jan. 16 for $4.5 million. After the second price reduction down to $4.15 million on March 13, the home went under contract with a buyer on April 15, before the sale was finalized in a cash deal at $3.925 million. So the sales price ended up coming in $575,000 below the initial list price (12.8% less), and 5.4% below the last reduction in the list price.

This is a pretty common theme in our current market where if a new listing does not generate almost immediate interest and go under contract within the first two to four weeks on the market, the perception is likely that the home is overpriced. Homes that are priced properly to the current market are typically drawing fairly quick offers ranging from about 7% below list to full price. Most buyers seem focused on finding well-maintained, clean and uncluttered homes that have been updated, and that are in move-in ready condition. If a home is in need of repairs or updating, buyers are typically looking for sizable discounts.

The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of July 3, 2023, unless otherwise noted. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 43 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.

Starting at /week.