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Painting a picture of our market by total dollar sales volume

By GERI and BOB QUINN 7 min read
Geri and Bob Quinn

As we have discussed numerous times in this column over the past 16 months, based on both median sales prices for closed home sales and on median active list prices, our overall single-family home market in Cape Coral reached their peak prices in March and April 2022. From that point forward, our home prices started to soften as the Federal Reserve launched its aggressive interest rate hikes leading to mortgage rates more than doubling from near record low levels to the highest rates seen in the past 22 years. As the calendar turned from April to May of last year, we started pointing out the significant shifts we were seeing in buyer attitudes, as they mostly stopped making full price or higher offers on homes, and instead became very comfortable making below list price offers on their favorite homes. This sudden shift in buyer behavior did not show up in the market numbers right away because of the typical 30 to 45-day lag time from when a home goes under contract as a pending sale until the sale is finalized. So what at first appeared to be a subtle cooling off in sales prices from the previously red hot market, finally "hit the tape" in our market statistics in July and August 2022, as closed home sales and sales prices dropped sharply, while the inventory of homes listed for sale rocketed higher.

To help illustrate what our housing market looked like from the peak price in 2022 to the post-Hurricane Ian low versus today, we will take a big picture view of Cape Coral home sales on a total dollar volume basis. We hit our all-time single month high of $375,325,985 in total dollar volume sales in March 2022, before gradually drifting 10.6% lower over the following three months to $335,432,333 in total dollar volume sales in June 2022. By July 2022, as interest rates started rocketing higher, the total dollar volume for home sales in the Cape plunged 29.8% lower compared to June, coming in at $235,637,161. In August of last year we dropped to $217,966,615 for the month, followed by a total dollar volume in closed home sales of $184,926,095 in September when Hurricane Ian hit late in the month and started to delay some sales that were in the pending sales pipeline. In October, post-Ian, the dollar volume hit its low for the year at $115,689,855 in total sales, for a total decline of 69.2% from the March 2022 record monthly high. Interestingly, the October 2022 low was in line with the pre-pandemic total dollar volume in sales of $115,418,549 posted in October 2019.

By November of last year the dollar volume numbers started to recover, coming in at $147,388,335 before rising to $162,399,597 in December. We reached our year-to-date 2023 peak in May of this year with the total dollar volume of home sales in the Cape topping out at $271,158,099. This was up a remarkable 134% from last October's low, but some 22% below the $349,028,151 from May 2022, and 27.8% below the all-time high set in April of last year, as noted above.

Just to give you another perspective about what transpired in our market from the pre-COVID pandemic year of 2019 through the present, we will take a look at the total dollar volume of home sales for the first seven months of each of these years. From January through July 2019, the total cumulative dollar volume of home sales in Cape Coral came to $930,580,217. This was 2.2% higher compared to 2018, and in 2020 as our market was getting its legs back under it after emerging from the COVID shutdowns, we reached a new record in dollar volume sales for the first seven months of that year totaling $979,142,090 or 5.2% higher than in 2019. Then the bidding war buying frenzy kicked into full gear in a "homes gone wild" fashion. In the first seven months of 2021, the total dollar volume of home sales in the Cape blasted 79.8% higher from the same time period of 2020, reaching a cumulative amount of $1,759,249,085. By July 2022, as our market was beginning to roll over from the weight of higher interest rates, our total dollar volume of sales in the first seven months of that year increased by another 24.7% to $2,193.697,931. In July of this year, our seven month total is down 28.3% versus a year ago, to $1,573,316,037. However, despite the "slow down," this is the third highest seven-month cumulative total on record and it is still some 69% above where we stood back in 2019.

The other big fundamental shifts that have occurred in our local market over the past 17 months have been the rapid rise in the inventory of Cape Coral homes listed for sale through a Realtor and the drop-off in pending home sales. Back on March 15, 2022, as the Federal Reserve was beginning its war on inflation by jacking up interest rates, there were only 430 active listings for single-family homes in the Multiple Listing Service with a median list price of $595,000. As we noted in this column back then, most homes were going under contract with buyers within a matter of a few days, if not hours, after coming onto the market as a new listing in what we referred to as a "just in time" inventory. Back then there were 1,034 homes under contract with buyers as pending sales. By April 19, 2022, there were 547 active home listings in the Cape with a median list price of $610,000 and 998 pending sales in the pipeline. Based on our weekly market surveys, this was the peak level for list prices.

By July 19, 2022, there were 1,309 active listings for single-family homes in Cape Coral with the median list price coming in at $545,000 and only 702 pending sales in the pipeline. About one year ago on Aug. 9, 2022, there were 1,397 active listings with a median list price of $524,900 and 707 pending sales. Post-Hurricane Irma, on Oct. 25, 2022, there were 1,276 active listings with a median list price of $499,694 and only 571 pending sales in the pipeline. By Jan. 3 of this year, we had 1,330 active listings with a median list price of $509,873 and 522 pending sales, which were down due to the influence of hurricane damage while waiting on insurance settlements and repairs.

This brings us to our current market, where as of Tuesday, Aug. 15, we had 1,802 active listings for single-family homes in the MLS at list prices ranging from $249,900 to $7.59 million for a just completed, new 2023 riverfront home in the Southeast Cape. The current median list price came in at $525,000. There are currently 652 homes listed for sale in the Cape at $450,000 and under, which equals 36% of the active listings. At the other end of the price spectrum, there were 210 homes on the market at list prices of $1 million and above. This was down from 223 million dollar-plus homes on the market a week ago.

There are currently 768 homes in the Cape under contract with buyers as pending sales at prices ranging from $150,000 for a storm damaged home to $2.59 million, and the median pending sales price came in at $399,250. There were a total of 505 pending sales at $450,000 and under, equalling 65.8% of the total number of pending sales, to go with the 29 pending sales at $1 million and above, which was up from 25 homes a week ago.

The sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida Realtors Multiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Fla., as of Aug. 14, 2023, unless otherwise noted. It was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn and it includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, and does not include condominiums, short sales or foreclosures. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice. The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with the RE/MAX Realty Team office in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 43 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.

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